🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD enters the week in sideways consolidation, following a strong U.S. labor report that temporarily supported the dollar. The broader structure still favors the euro over the medium term as Fed rate cut expectations shift later into the year while Eurozone–U.S. growth divergence narrows.
🇺🇸 United States
• Labor Market Strength:
January NFP came in at 130k vs 66k expected, and unemployment improved to 4.3% vs 4.4% expected, reinforcing U.S. economic resilience.
• Shift in Rate Expectations:
Markets now expect the first Fed rate cut in July instead of June, reflecting the strong labor showing.
• Medium Term USD Tone:
Despite short term USD strength, analysts expect a weaker dollar later in 2026, as inflation slows, employment stabilizes, and Fed easing becomes more justified.
🇪🇺 Eurozone
• Eurozone Momentum:
Narrowing economic divergence between Eurozone and U.S. supports the euro's medium term outlook. Analysts see potential for EUR/USD to return above 1.20 later in the year if Eurozone activity firms.
• ECB Expectations:
The ECB is not expected to move before the Fed; stability in policy keeps EUR/USD more sensitive to U.S. data than domestic catalysts.

📊 Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD remains in a correction-phase consolidation while maintaining a larger bullish structure.
Support Levels
• 1.1750–1.1760 — Key weekly support; must hold to preserve upside bias
• 1.1580–1.1600 — Extended correction target if lower support breaks
Resistance Levels
• 1.1900 — Near term resistance
• 1.2000–1.2080 — Upper resistance band, aligned with January high region and trend continuation zone
Indicators & Structure
• MACD: Positive but weakening → stabilization after January's volatility.
• Bollinger Bands: Narrowing → volatility compression before next breakout leg.
• Trend: Medium-term bullish trend remains intact after the January surge above 1.20+.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: Break and close above 1.1900
• Targets:
o 1.2000
o 1.2080
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1760
• Catalysts:
o Softer U.S. inflation or labor data
o Markets re pricing Fed cuts earlier
• Rationale:
A clean break above consolidation reactivates the bullish trend toward 1.20–1.2080.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: Break below 1.1760
• Targets:
o 1.1600
o 1.1580
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1850
• Catalysts:
o Stronger than expected U.S. macro data
o Hawkish Fed commentary
• Rationale:
Losing the weekly support opens the door to a deeper correction into the mid 1.15s.