🔍 Fundamental Overview
• Federal Reserve vs ECB:
o Markets expect ~87–90% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate cut in December, with additional easing priced into 2026.
o ECB remains cautious, with hawkish rhetoric and possible rate hikes next year (e.g., Germany’s strong industrial data), fostering divergence.
• US Macroeconomic Data:
o Mixed signals: improving ISM data but strong PCE inflation (~3% remains elevated), along with weak labor market indicators like ADP job losses.
• Eurozone Fundamentals:
o Germany’s industrial output rose sharply +1.8% MoM, countering recession fears.
o Eurozone inflation stabilized near target; ECB members (e.g. Schnabel) express openness to tightening.
• Key Catalysts This Week:
o FOMC decision and Fed’s forward guidance.
o US data: JOLTS job openings, initial jobless claims, PCE core data.

📊 Technical Analysis
• Support Levels:
o 1.1550 – Weekly range bottom; key support.
o 1.1466 – Lower weekly support floor.
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.1683 – Upper range (~last week’s high).
o 1.1720–1.1750 – Extended breakout target.
• Indicators:
o MACD: Moderately bullish, above zero.
o Stochastic: Oversold/overbought balance suggests possible short-term pullback.
o Bollinger Bands: Price hovering near middle band, within compressed range.
o Price Structure: Weekly channel confined to 1.1550–1.1683, awaiting catalyst.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: On break and close above 1.1683
• Target: 1.1720 ➡️ 1.1778
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1660 or 1.1650
• Catalysts: Dovish Fed, strong Eurozone data, Dollar weakness
❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: On break below 1.1550
• Target: 1.1466 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1580
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed tone, strong US labor/inflation data