🌍 Fundamental Drivers
🇺🇸 United States
• Fed Outlook: Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in September with a 75% probability (down from 90% last week).
• Strong Data: US home sales rose 2.0% MoM (source: US Census Bureau), and manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, its highest in three years (source: ISM).
• Jackson Hole Symposium: Fed Chair Powell’s speech emphasized inflation risks from tariffs, adding uncertainty to the rate path.
🇪🇺 Eurozone
• GDP Growth: Q2 GDP rose 0.3% QoQ, supporting euro stability.
• ECB Policy: Remains cautious, with no immediate rate changes expected.
📈 Technical Analysis
Support Levels
• 1.1555 (key short-term support)
• 1.1387 (deeper support zone)
Resistance Levels
• 1.1650
• 1.1710
• 1.1740
• 1.1830 (extended target)
Indicators
• MACD: Currently near zero, which signals a lack of clear momentum. This reading suggests traders should wait for a decisive move—either a breakout or confirmation of continued sideways price action—before entering new positions.
• Stochastic Oscillator: In oversold territory, indicating that EUR/USD could be due for a short-term rebound as sellers may be exhausted and buyers could step in.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, a sign of local oversold conditions. This may imply a potential bounce or stabilization if selling pressure eases.
These technical signals help traders gauge whether the market is trending, reversing, or moving sideways, guiding entry and exit decisions.
📌 Trading Scenarios
• 🟢 Bullish Setup
• Buy Zone: Above 1.1620–1.1650
• Targets: 1.1710 → 1.1740 → 1.1830
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1580
• 🔴 Bearish Setup
• Sell Zone: Below 1.1580
• Targets: 1.1500 → 1.1380
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1675
Providing clear buy/sell zones, targets, and stop-loss levels offers practical guidance, helping traders quickly understand potential strategies based on this analysis. Concise setups with specific entry points and risk management are recommended for future analyses to maintain this practical value.