🔍 Fundamental Overview
The euro continues to outperform the dollar as Fed–ECB divergence becomes more pronounced:
• Fed vs. ECB: The Fed is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate cut in December, while markets anticipate that the ECB will maintain or potentially raise rates later in 2025 — reinforcing euro strength.
• U.S. Macro Data: Dollar weakness prevails as key U.S. indicators — including ISM, PCE inflation, and non-farm payrolls — remain soft. This supports a dovish Fed outlook.
• Eurozone Sentiment: Stable inflation and resilient eurozone PMIs bolster the euro, reducing recession fears.
• Catalysts This Week:
o ECB’s final decision of 2025.
o EU inflation and flash PMI data.
o U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) and PCE inflation: key drivers for Fed outlook.

📊 Technical Analysis
• Support Zones:
o 1.1650 – Weekly support/consolidation floor.
o 1.1685 – 21 day EMA/short term trendline.
• Resistance Zones:
o 1.1750 – Near-term resistance.
o 1.1800 – Upper bound; decisive breakout target.
• Indicators:
o MACD supports continued bullish momentum.
o Price action suggests inverted head-and-shoulders, pointing to bullish reversal.
o Consolidation around 1.1650–1.1800 indicates a bullish squeeze waiting for a breakout.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1750–1.1780 with momentum confirmation.
• Targets: 1.1800 ➡️ 1.1900 (major resistance).
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1685.
• Catalysts: ECB holds or signals further tightening, alongside Fed dovishness.
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Break and close below 1.1650.
• Targets: 1.1600 ➡️ 1.1550.
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1750.
• Catalysts: Soft eurozone data, strong U.S. labor or inflation figures prompting Fed hawkishness.