🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o 1.1720 – 1.1736 – short-term support, aligned with recent lows
o 1.1686 – deeper base near prior consolidation low
o 1.1632 – prior resistance now acting as medium-term support
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.1795 – recent intraday high
o 1.1853 – next technical resistance
o 1.1916 – minor upper boundary target should trend continue
• Indicator Signal:
o Remains above 20 and 50 day EMAs → bullish trend intact
o RSI overbought temporarily, prompting a mild pullback; trend remains upward

📰 Key Drivers
• Structural Dollar Weakness:
o Tariff uncertainty, U.S. budget deficits, and expected Fed rate cuts continue to suppress the dollar.
o Retail and asset flows show exporters shifting away from the dollar.
• Strong EUR:
o Euro trades near four-year highs as European equities outperform and ECB tone turns more upbeat.
• Calmer Market Sentiment:
o Despite pending trade deadlines, currency markets remain subdued and range-bound.

📅 This Week’s Key Events
• Tuesday (July 8) – Germany Industrial Production & Eurozone Retail Sales
• Thursday (July 10) – U.S. ADP Employment Report
• Friday (July 11) – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish Scenario
• Maintain exposure above 1.1720–1.1736
• First target: 1.1795 – 1.1853, with breakout potential toward 1.1916
🔽 Bearish Scenario
• A break below 1.1720 risks a deeper move toward 1.1686
• Further weakness may test 1.1632