Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Stabilization, Not Strength
The euro continues to benefit from easing downside pressure rather than a clear inflow of bullish momentum. Expectations that European monetary conditions may remain relatively restrictive have helped stabilize the currency after earlier weakness.
However, broader structural issues persist. Growth concerns, sensitivity to energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to limit confidence in sustained euro strength. As a result, upside moves are likely to remain measured unless accompanied by a clear improvement in risk sentiment or macro expectations.
US Side – Dollar Losing Dominance, Not Support
The US dollar remains fundamentally supported by higher interest rates, but its dominance has softened. After a strong performance earlier in the quarter, momentum has slowed, allowing EURUSD to recover without triggering aggressive dollar demand on every rally.
That said, the dollar remains highly sensitive to risk events and data surprises. Any return of risk off sentiment could quickly halt or reverse euro gains.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD is still trading within a broader bearish structure, but near term price action shows higher lows forming since mid March. This suggests a corrective recovery rather than a full trend change.
The key question this week is whether the market can maintain upward pressure without momentum fading near resistance.
Key Support Zones
The 1.1500 – 1.1520 area remains the most important short term support. As long as price holds above this zone, the corrective recovery remains valid.
Below that, 1.1450 is the critical downside level. A break below would negate the recovery structure and reopen the path toward deeper lows.
Key Resistance Zones
On the upside, 1.1620 – 1.1650 is the first major resistance band. This area has repeatedly capped gains and must be cleared decisively for further upside.
Beyond that, 1.1700 – 1.1750 acts as a higher timeframe resistance zone. Acceptance above this area would significantly weaken the bearish narrative.
Momentum Conditions
Momentum indicators reflect steady recovery but lack acceleration. There are no extreme conditions present, suggesting price can still move higher, but without urgency. This favors gradual progress rather than impulsive breakouts.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Continued Corrective Recovery (Base Case)
If EURUSD holds above 1.1500 and builds acceptance above 1.1620, the pair may extend toward 1.1700 during the week.
This scenario assumes a relatively calm macro environment and continued moderation in dollar demand.

Scenario 2: Range Consolidation (High Probability)
The market may remain locked between 1.1500 and 1.1650, with neither side gaining full control. In this case, rallies near resistance may fade, while pullbacks attract buyers near support.
This structure favors patience and confirmation rather than directional conviction.

Scenario 3: Bearish Rejection (Lower Probability)
If EURUSD fails near 1.1650 and drops back below 1.1500, sellers could regain control, targeting 1.1450 initially.
This would confirm that the recent recovery was purely corrective.