🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD is trading in a tight range as markets digest the impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and weak eurozone data. The pair is supported by falling energy prices and expectations of continued Fed easing, but upside remains limited due to sluggish European growth.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Outlook: Markets expect two more rate cuts by year-end, but uncertainty remains due to missing data from the shutdown.
• Shutdown Impact: Key releases like NFP and CPI are delayed, reducing dollar momentum.
• ISM Services PMI: Released but failed to spark volatility.
• Political Risk: Senate failed to pass spending bills for the fourth time.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• ECB Policy: No further cuts expected unless inflation undershoots sharply.
• Inflation: September CPI at 2.2% YoY, slightly above July’s 2.0%.
• PMI & Employment: Manufacturing PMI at 49.8 (contraction), unemployment at 6.3%.
• Energy Prices: Declining oil and gas prices support the euro by easing import costs.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1650 – key range base
• 1.1590 – medium-term support
• 1.1500 – psychological level
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1780 – short-term ceiling
• 1.1830 – breakout level
• 1.1915 – extended target
Indicators:
• MACD: Mild bullish crossover
• RSI: 52 – neutral to bullish
• Trend Structure: Consolidation within 1.1650–1.1830 range
• Price Action: Reclaim of 1.1730 suggests potential for upside retest

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1780
• Targets: 1.1830 ➡️ 1.1915
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1650
• Catalysts: Continued Fed dovishness, risk-on sentiment, stable eurozone inflation
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1650
• Targets: 1.1590 ➡️ 1.1500
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1780
• Catalysts: Strong USD rebound, eurozone data disappointment, risk-off flows