🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD traded in a choppy but upward-biased range last week, supported by softer U.S. inflation and expectations of Fed easing, while euro gains were capped by lingering Eurozone political uncertainty.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Economic Data: Q3 GDP grew 0.2% QoQ, beating expectations; PMIs showed resilience in services, while manufacturing remains weak.
• Inflation: Eurozone CPI at 2.2% in September, slightly above target but trending lower; ECB expects inflation near 2% medium term.
• ECB Policy: ECB held rates at 2% on Oct 30, signaling the easing cycle is near its end; no further cuts expected this year.
• Fiscal & Political Climate: Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty weigh on sentiment, but fiscal support and EU recovery funds cushion downside risks.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 29 but hinted at caution for December; odds of another cut now ~50%.
• Macro Signals: Inflation eased to 3.0% YoY in September, slightly below forecast; labor market soft, with weak ADP job growth.
• Risk Sentiment: U.S. government shutdown (now resolved) disrupted data flow, adding volatility; dollar demand tempered by dovish Fed tone.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1590 – Initial support
• 1.1540 – Key structural floor
• 1.1470 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1680 – Breakout trigger
• 1.1740 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1800 – Bullish extension target
Indicators:
• MACD: Neutral, slight bullish divergence
• RSI: ~50 – Balanced, leaning bullish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold
• 50-day MA: Price hovering near 1.1620; sustained close above 1.1680 signals bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1680 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1740 ➡️ 1.1800
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1540
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, Eurozone data resilience
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1540
• Targets: 1.1470 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1680
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, Eurozone political instability