🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD starts the third week of November near 1.1590 after a modest recovery last week. The pair remains sensitive to Fed policy signals and Eurozone’s fragile growth outlook. Dollar strength is capped by easing expectations for aggressive Fed cuts, while Euro gains are limited by weak manufacturing data.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Growth: Q3 GDP confirmed at 0.2% QoQ; forward indicators suggest stagnation into Q4.
• Inflation: October CPI at 2.1%, core stable at 2.4%; disinflation trend intact.
• ECB Outlook: ECB keeps rates at 2%; no further cuts expected in 2025. Policy tone remains cautious.
• Sentiment: Services PMI resilient, manufacturing contraction persists; fiscal support cushions downside risks.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent speeches lean cautious.
• Economic Data: Inflation steady at 3.0% YoY; labor market cooling. Shutdown-related delays keep markets guessing on key releases.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by safe-haven flows and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1550 – Initial support
• 1.1520 – Weekly low zone
• 1.1470 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1610 – Initial resistance
• 1.1635 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1650 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish momentum moderating; histogram narrowing
• RSI: ~52 – Neutral, leaning bullish
• Stochastic: Approaching overbought territory
• 50-day MA: Price near 1.1600; sustained close above 1.1650 needed for bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1635 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1650 ➡️ 1.1700
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1520
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, Eurozone data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1520
• Targets: 1.1470 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1635
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, Eurozone weakness