🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD starts the week near 1.1760–1.1800, pressured last week by broader USD strength but supported by Eurozone sentiment and expectations of a softer Fed.

🇪🇺 Eurozone
• ECB Policy: ECB kept rates unchanged and reinforced a data dependent stance, signaling continued stability.
• Economic Tone: Eurozone investor confidence surged as the Sentix Index rose to 4.2, the first positive reading since July, signaling a potential exit from recession.
• Market Sentiment: Improved sentiment coupled with ECB stability has helped EUR maintain strength despite USD volatility.

🇺🇸 United States
• Fed Policy: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair candidate increased expectations for a more hawkish, disciplined Fed stance, supporting USD strength.
• Data Flow: U.S. labor data remains soft, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in 2026, weighing on USD.
• Risk Tone: Dollar weakness persists as markets anticipate slower growth and softer inflation, keeping risk appetite elevated.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels
• 1.1760–1.1780 — Primary support / consolidation base
• 1.1765 — Weekly support level (triangle correction zone)
• 1.1580 — Deeper corrective target if 1.1760 breaks
Resistance Levels
• 1.1835 — Initial resistance from 4 hour structure
• 1.1900 — Key weekly resistance, next bullish target zone
• 1.1965 — Breakout confirmation for renewed medium term uptrend
Indicators
• MACD: Positive but slowing; reflects correction inside uptrend.
• RSI: Holds above 50 on improving Euro sentiment.
• Stochastic: Normalizing from overbought levels → supports consolidation.
• 50 day MA: Price holding above trend MAs; staying above 1.1760 crucial.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup
• Entry: Above 1.1835–1.1850 with confirmation
• Targets:
    • 1.1900
    • 1.1965 (breakout extension)
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1760
• Catalysts:
    • Softer U.S. labor / inflation data
    • ECB stability
    • Recovery in Eurozone sentiment
• Rationale: Rebounds from 1.1760 support and improving euro sentiment favor upside continuation if 1.1835 breaks.

❌ Bearish Setup
• Entry: Below 1.1760
• Targets:
    • 1.1600
    • 1.1580 (deeper correction)
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1835
• Catalysts:
    • Hawkish Fed commentary
    • Strong U.S. macro surprises
    • Weak Eurozone data
• Rationale: A breakdown from the consolidation base opens risk toward 1.1600 and potentially deeper, in line with correction structure.