🔍 Fundamental Overview
EURUSD begins the week under pressure, following stronger than expected U.S. data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. However, the broader medium term uptrend remains intact unless key support levels break.
🇺🇸 United States Fundamentals (USD Side)
• Strong labor market data fuels USD strength:
Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 206k versus 223k expected, reinforcing U.S. economic resilience and supporting the dollar.
• Manufacturing indicators surprised to the upside:
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to a five month high, adding to USD momentum.
• FOMC minutes revealed internal hawkish divisions:
Some Fed members even discussed the possibility of future rate hikes, reducing expectations for aggressive policy easing. Markets now price two cuts for 2026, rather than more.
• Mixed U.S. data creates uncertainty:
Pending home sales fell –0.8% m/m, and the U.S. Leading Economic Index declined –0.2%, offsetting some of the USD bullishness.
Net effect:
The dollar enters the week strong, but broader macro signals remain mixed — leaving room for EURUSD to stabilize if Euro side data firm up.

🇪🇺 Eurozone Fundamentals (EUR Side)
• Euro area data last week provided little directional strength, contributing to EUR softness.
• However, the underlying medium term euro bullish structure remains valid as long as EURUSD holds the 1.1660–1.1700 support zone.
• Technical and sentiment factors suggest stabilization is still possible despite short term bearishness.

📊 Technical Analysis
The EURUSD has been in a medium term uptrend since the January rally toward 1.2050+, but price action has shifted into a corrective phase with lower highs forming.
Chart Structure
• EURUSD has moved into the lower part of its multi week range and is approaching the middle Bollinger band as volatility compresses.
• MACD remains positive, but momentum is weakening.
• Stochastic indicates short term downside pressure.
Support Levels
• 1.1660–1.1700 — critical support holding the medium term bullish scenario.
• 1.1520 — next major downside target if key support breaks.
Resistance Levels
• 1.1870 — first upside recovery target.
• 1.2000 — major resistance aligned with the January breakout area.
Additional Technical Notes (from alternative analyses)
• FX.co analysis highlights a key Fibonacci resistance at 1.1830, with potential upside toward 1.1889–1.1919 if the level breaks.
• A bearish wave structure is still visible on lower timeframes, favoring caution until 1.1830–1.1870 is reclaimed.

📈 Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Bullish (Recovery)
• Entry: Break and close above 1.1830–1.1870
• Targets:
o 1.1919
o 1.2000
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1700
• Catalysts:
o Softer than expected U.S. data
o Weaker USD following tariff instability or political risk (e.g., U.S. trade policy turbulence)
• Rationale:
The medium term uptrend remains intact; a reclaim of 1.18+ signals bullish momentum returning.

Scenario 2 — Bearish (Continuation of Correction)
• Entry: Break below 1.1700
• Targets:
o 1.1660
o 1.1520
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1830
• Catalysts:
o Strong U.S. macro data
o More hawkish messaging from Fed officials
• Rationale:
A break of the key support zone would invalidate the medium term bullish outlook and expose deeper downside.