Technical Overview
Support Levels:
• 1.1700 – 1.1720: Recent low and 20-day MA confluence
• 1.1650: Mid-range support
• 1.1600: Deep support, recent swing low
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1789 – 1.1800: Current range top
• 1.1830: 52-week high zone
• 1.1900: Psychological/technical next target
Indicator Signals:
• Trading above 20‑ & 50‑day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias.
• RSI ~60, showing positive momentum without overbought extremes.
Fundamental Drivers
Dollar Downtrend: U.S. fiscal deficits and trade/tariff volatility continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar.
Fed vs. ECB:
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing a pause in rate changes but is unlikely to cut rates imminently.
• The ECB is likely to cut rates this week; however, the euro rally remains unaffected, suggesting dollar dynamics remain dominant.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment persists as global investors continue reducing dollar exposure.
Key Events to Watch
• Tuesday, July 1: ECB monetary policy decision
• Thursday, July 3: U.S. ADP Employment data
• Friday, July 4: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate
Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Strategy
• Consider buying on dips above 1.1720, with an initial target near 1.1800, followed by 1.1830.
• A sustained break above 1.1830 could drive momentum towards 1.1900.
Bearish Strategy
• A failure below 1.1720 risks a decline to 1.1650 and 1.1600.
• Strong U.S. jobs data may trigger a deeper retraction.