🔍 Fundamental Overview
EURUSD starts the new week in a tight consolidation zone, pressured by rising U.S. inflation and geopolitically driven risk aversion, but supported by stabilizing Eurozone inflation.
🇺🇸 United States
1. U.S. Inflation Surprises to the Upside
• The January PPI jumped from 0.4% to 0.5%, pushing annual producer inflation up from 3.3% → 3.6%.
• Core PPI rose from 0.6% → 0.8% m/m.
Impact:
• Markets fear the Fed may delay rate cuts, possibly beyond June.
• This supports the U.S. dollar and caps EURUSD upside.
2. Geopolitical Shock: Israel–Iran Conflict Escalates
• Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz expected.
Impact:
• Higher oil prices → higher U.S. inflation expectations → stronger USD.
• Safe-haven flows favor USD over EUR.
3. Key U.S. Data Ahead
• NFP due Friday: Analysts expect +60k jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%.
If NFP beats expectations, EURUSD could retest 1.17 or lower.

🇪🇺 Eurozone
1. Eurozone Inflation Softens Further
• German headline CPI fell from 2.1% → 1.9% in February.
Impact:
• Reinforces ECB’s data dependent, cautious stance.
• Limits EUR strength.
2. Eurozone Macro Mixed
• German retail sales were weaker than expected while manufacturing shows some resilience (per parallel reporting).
3. ECB Outlook
• ECB still seen holding rates steady, with no immediate tightening or clear dovish pivot.

📊 Technical Analysis
EURUSD trades at 1.1817, sitting just above the 50 day EMA and forming a falling wedge—a structure that often precedes bullish breakouts.
Market Structure
• Falling wedge on daily chart → potential bullish reversal risk.
• RSI and MACD pointing higher, showing early upside momentum.
Bollinger Bands
• Narrowing bands indicate declining volatility and an impending breakout.

Support Levels
• 1.1700–1.1720 → Key medium term support (must hold to preserve bullish structure)
• 1.1743–1.1745 → Recent swing low
• 1.1580–1.1600 → Next major support if 1.17 breaks
Resistance Levels
• 1.1870–1.1895 → First meaningful resistance cluster
• 1.1900–1.1950 → Medium term breakout zone
• 1.2000–1.2050 → January highs / uptrend confirmation zone

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: Break above 1.1870
• Targets:
o 1.1900–1.1950
o 1.2000–1.2050
• Stop: Below 1.1740
• Catalysts:
o Softer NFP
o De-escalation of Middle East conflict
o Lower U.S. ISM readings
• Rationale:
Falling wedge + positive MACD/RSI suggest EURUSD could rebound if USD momentum cools.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: Break below 1.1700
• Targets:
o 1.1600
o 1.1580
• Stop: Above 1.1820
• Catalysts:
o Strong NFP
o Hot U.S. inflation signals
o Further escalation in Iran/Israel conflict
• Rationale:
A decisive break below 1.17 invalidates the wedge pattern and resumes the broader correction.