Weekly Analysis List
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis
4/21/25
Market Overview
As of April 21,2025, the EUR/USD experienced modest gains last week, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and somewhat hawkish remarks from European Central Bank officials. Despite this, the pair remains confined within a broader range as market participants anticipate clearer directives from central banks regarding forthcoming interest rate decisions.
Technical Outlook
Current Price: Approximately 1.1447
Weekly Change: +0.40%
Trend: Short-term bullish, medium-term neutral
Key Support Levels:
• 1.1150 – Psychological support, aligning with the 200-day moving average zone
• 1.1100 – Previous resistance now serving as support
• 1.1000 – March low and Fibonacci retracement level
Key Resistance Levels:
• 1.1350 – April high; a daily close above this is necessary for bullish momentum
• 1.1400 – February swing high
• 1.1550 – Major psychological resistance
Indicators:
• RSI (Daily): 60 – Indicates room before reaching overbought conditions
• MACD: Positive momentum is continuing to build
• Moving Averages: The price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming a bullish structure
Fundamental Outlook
Federal Reserve Expectations: Last week's soft U.S. economic data has fueled speculation regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in June. This continues to exert pressure on the USD and provides upward momentum for EUR/USD.
European Central Bank Sentiment: While inflation within the Eurozone remains subdued, the ECB appears cautious about premature rate cuts, especially given recent comments highlighting persistent inflation in the services sector.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and global risk sentiment continue to influence safe-haven flows into the USD, adding volatility to the pair.
Key Events This Week
• April 23 (Tuesday): Eurozone PMIs (April flash) – crucial for assessing growth momentum
• April 25 (Thursday): U.S. GDP (Q1 advance) – a significant driver for USD direction
• April 26 (Friday): Eurozone CPI (Final, March) and U.S. Core PCE – key inflation updates
Conclusion
Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario: Should EUR/USD breach and maintain above 1.1500, bulls may target 1.1600, with potential extension to 1.1700 contingent on underperforming U.S. data.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to sustain 1.1200 could trigger a decline towards 1.1100 or potentially 1.1000, particularly if U.S. data exceeds expectations.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish, with near-term upside favoured unless macroeconomic developments alter sentiment.