🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o 1.1670, 1.1600, 1.1540 – Short-term support zone
o 1.1625–1.1630 – Key intraday support aligned with the 50-day EMA
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.1740 – Initial resistance barrier
o 1.1789 – 1.1835 – Bullish breakout targets
• Indicators:
o RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum
o Price remains below key daily moving averages
o MACD histogram remains positive but shows signs of slowing

📰 Fundamental Highlights
• US–EU Tariff Deal: The euro briefly rallied after the US and EU agreed on easing a 15% tariff rate on industrial goods, offering euro-area support. However, the reaction was limited by broader USD strength.
• USD Momentum: Despite expectations of a gradual Fed rate cut later this year, the US dollar held firm last week amid global risk-off flows and safe-haven demand.
• Euro Outlook: ECB rhetoric continues to signal caution amid low inflation growth, putting downward pressure on the euro unless US data significantly disappoints.

📅 Key Events to Watch This Week
• Wednesday: US FOMC statement
• Thursday: US Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
• Friday:
o US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
o US Durable Goods Orders
• Ongoing: Any updates related to trade or ECB policy outlooks

📈 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
• A confirmed break and daily close above 1.1740 would expose 1.1789, followed by 1.1835 as targets.
• Sustained bullish momentum could target 1.2065 over the medium term if macro sentiment shifts in euro’s favor.
Bearish Scenario:
• Failure to hold above 1.1600 could lead to retests of 1.1540 and possibly lower if risk aversion increases.
• A break below 1.1540 may open the door to 1.1450 or lower with strong dollar performance.