Weekly Analysis List
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis
1/5/26
Market Overview
EURUSD Weekly Analysis – 05 to 12 January 2026
Current Price: ~1.1720 (pullback from the late December high of 1.1910)
Bias: Cautiously Bearish to Neutral, with potential volatility
Projected Range: 1.1660 – 1.1850
📌 Fundamental Overview
🇺🇸 United States
The EUR/USD enters the first full trading week of 2026 under heavy influence from upcoming U.S. macro releases—especially Non Farm Payrolls (NFP).
• NFP Expectations:
Economists forecast ~55K new jobs for December, down from 64K previously, with manufacturing employment likely still falling due to Trump administration tariffs.
• Fresh Fed Signals:
Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicate that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation continues to fall, which keeps downward pressure on the USD.
• Geopolitical Factors:
Over the weekend, the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela sparked mild risk off sentiment, though early week FX impact is limited.
Overall, the U.S. side creates a volatile but potentially USD negative backdrop, depending on how NFP and Fed commentary unfold.
🇪🇺 Eurozone
• The Eurozone calendar is relatively quiet this week, with no major drivers expected to influence the euro.
• ECB expectations remain neutral, with rates projected to remain unchanged through much of 2026, supporting EUR stability.
Given this imbalance in data flow, USD centric risk will dominate EUR/USD movements.
📊 Technical Analysis
After reaching 1.1910 (the 2025 high), EUR/USD retreated and is currently consolidating near 1.1720.
The pair shows short term bearish structure, trading below multiple moving averages.
Key Support Levels
• 1.1660 — Major weekly support (and a likely NFP target).
• 1.1680 – 1.1700 — Near term demand zone; must hold to avoid deeper declines.
Key Resistance Levels
• 1.1735 – 1.1760 — Immediate short term resistance.
• 1.1850 — Upper boundary; break could re open bullish momentum.
• 1.1910 — December high; very strong psychological and structural resistance.
Indicators
• Momentum: Weak; price held below key MAs and unable to reclaim 1.1750 region.
• RSI: Mid range with modest upside room; no overbought risk currently.
📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: Break above 1.1730–1.1760
• Targets: 1.1850 → 1.1910
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1680
• Bullish Catalysts:
o Weak NFP (significant miss)
o Surprisingly dovish Fed tone
o Reduced geopolitical tensions
❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: Break below 1.1700–1.1680
• Targets: 1.1660 → 1.1600
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1760
• Bearish Catalysts:
o Strong NFP beat
o Hawkish leaning Fed communication
o Broad USD safe haven demand
Conclusion
🧠 Market Sentiment Summary
EURUSD begins the January 2026 trading cycle with fragile momentum:
• USD remains vulnerable due to Fed cut expectations and poor labor outlook.
• EUR strength is muted due to an inactive Eurozone calendar.
• Pair is likely to whipsaw in response to NFP, Fed statements, and geopolitical headlines.
Bottom line:
The pair remains in a data driven consolidation, and direction depends almost entirely on U.S. labor data and Fed expectations. Holding above 1.1680 favors a rebound toward 1.1850; losing 1.1660 exposes deeper downside.