🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD continued its downward drift last week as eurozone political uncertainty and weak macro data weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar held firm despite the ongoing government shutdown, supported by safe-haven flows and expectations of Fed easing.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: Markets price in ~95% probability of a rate cut by end-October.
• Government Shutdown: Enters second week, delaying key data releases.
• Risk Sentiment: Dollar supported by safe-haven demand.
• Fed Commentary: Officials remain cautious but open to further easing.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Political Risk: French cabinet reshuffle and budget tensions add pressure.
• Macro Data: Industrial production remains weak; services show mild recovery.
• Inflation: Headline CPI eases to 2.6% YoY.
• ECB Outlook: No major shift expected; divergence with Fed favors USD.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1500 – psychological level
• 1.1440 – multi-month low
• 1.1380 – extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1650 – short-term ceiling
• 1.1730 – swing high
• 1.1830 – breakout level
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish crossover
• Stochastic: Oversold zone
• RSI: ~40 – weak momentum
• 50-day MA: Price below ~1.1700 – bearish signal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1650 with volume
• Targets: 1.1730 ➡️ 1.1830
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1500
• Catalysts: ECB surprise, weak U.S. data, risk-on flows
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1500
• Targets: 1.1440 ➡️ 1.1380
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1650
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed tone, eurozone instability