🔍 Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward momentum following the Fed’s 25bps rate cut on 17 September. The euro is supported by a stable ECB stance and improving trade data, while the dollar remains under pressure from soft macro indicators.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: After last week’s cut, markets expect further easing in Q4.
• Inflation Data: Core CPI remains elevated, but headline CPI is cooling.
• Labor Market: Jobless claims remain high; wage growth is slowing.
• Consumer Sentiment: University of Michigan index dipped to 68.2, signalling caution.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• ECB Policy: Rates unchanged; Lagarde reiterates data-driven approach.
• German PMI: Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.9, still contractionary but stabilizing.
• Trade Balance: €5.3B surplus supports euro demand.
• Inflation Outlook: Sticky core inflation keeps ECB cautious.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1749 – short-term pivot
• 1.1650 – trendline support
• 1.1573 – key weekly base
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1830 – recent swing high
• 1.1915 – breakout target
• 1.2000 – medium-term resistance
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish crossover
• Stochastic: Near overbought
• RSI: 63 – bullish momentum
• Bollinger Bands: Expanding – volatility increasing

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1749 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1830 ➡️ 1.1915
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1650
• Catalysts: Dovish Fed, stable Eurozone data, improving sentiment
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1650
• Targets: 1.1573 ➡️ 1.1500
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1749
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed surprise, weak Eurozone data, risk-off flows