🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD faced downward pressure last week as the dollar regained strength amid mixed U.S. data and cautious Fed commentary. The euro struggled to find support due to weak macro indicators and a passive ECB stance.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: After the September cut, markets still expect ~43bps of easing by year-end, but Fed officials remain non-committal.
• Housing Data: New Home Sales surged +20.5% in August, boosting dollar sentiment.
• Manufacturing: Richmond Fed Index dropped to -17, signaling contraction.
• PMI: S&P Composite PMI fell to 53.6 from 54.6 – still expansionary but slowing.
• Risk Factors: Government shutdown concerns and inflation uncertainty remain.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• ECB Policy: No change; Lagarde maintains a cautious tone.
• Macro Data: Weak industrial output and consumer sentiment weigh on the euro.
• Inflation: Sticky core inflation, but overall momentum remains soft.
• Impact: Limited euro support; divergence with Fed policy favors USD.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1645 – recent low
• 1.1590 – medium-term support
• 1.1500 – key psychological level
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1740 – short-term resistance
• 1.1800 – swing high
• 1.1830 – breakout level
Indicators:
• MACD: Slightly bearish
• Stochastic: Neutral
• RSI: 48 – consolidation zone
• 50-day MA: Price hovering near 1.1660 – critical support

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1740 with momentum
• Targets: 1.1800 ➡️ 1.1830
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1650
• Catalysts: Weak U.S. data, risk-on sentiment, ECB surprise
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1650
• Targets: 1.1590 ➡️ 1.1500
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1740
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed tone, risk-off flows