Technical Overview
Trend: Upward
Current Price: ~1.1470
Key Resistance Levels:
1.1500 – psychological and technical resistance
1.1600 – next major upside target
Key Support Levels:
1.1320 – former resistance turned support
1.1175 – deeper support in case of retracement
Indicators:
RSI has reduced from overbought conditions, around 65 — still indicating potential for further increase.
MACD remains positive, showing continued upward movement.
Price is above its 50-day moving average, confirming the current trend.
The pair is forming a “cup and handle” continuation pattern, which could suggest further increases toward the 1.15–1.16 zone if confirmed.
Fundamental Drivers
U.S. Dollar Weakness: Volatility in U.S. trade policy, particularly with new tariff measures, is creating uncertainty for the dollar. Market sentiment is favoring the euro over the USD as a safe haven.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Investors are awaiting clarity from upcoming Fed speeches. A dovish stance, particularly if officials hint at holding or cutting rates, could weaken the USD.
Eurozone Sentiment: The euro is benefiting from relative stability and expectations that the European Central Bank may begin cutting rates later than the Fed. Recent strong PMI data from the Eurozone is also supportive.
Forecast & Scenarios
Upward Scenario: A breakout above 1.1500 could lead to gains toward 1.1600 and even 1.1700 in the coming weeks, especially if the dollar continues to weaken.
Downward Scenario: A decline below 1.1320 might signal a correction down to 1.1175. This scenario would require stronger-than-expected U.S. data or a hawkish Fed tone.