Weekly Analysis List
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis
5/12/25
Market Overview
💶 EUR/USD Weekly Analysis (May 12–16, 2025)
📈 Current Market Snapshot
• Trend: Bearish
• Current Price: ~1.1210
• Key Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1150, 1.1100
• Key Resistance Levels: 1.1280, 1.1375, 1.1400
🔍 Technical Overview
• The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a descending channel, demonstrating a clear bearish trend.
• A recent break below 1.1300 has reinforced downward momentum.
• Indicators including the 20/50/100 SMAs and MACD are suggesting a sell signal.
• The RSI remains weak, indicating limited bullish momentum at this time.
• A brief pullback to test 1.1280 is possible before further downside movement.
📰 Fundamental Highlights
• The euro remains under pressure due to anticipated ECB rate cuts in June.
• The US dollar has strengthened amidst renewed optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations.
• Investors are closely monitoring US inflation data and statements from Fed Chair Powell, which could significantly influence market sentiment.
• The macroeconomic backdrop generally favors USD strength in the short term.
🔮 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bearish Case:
• A break below 1.1150 may trigger further decline toward 1.1100, potentially reaching 1.1045.
• Bearish indicators remain dominant unless key resistance levels are breached.
Bullish Case:
• A move above 1.1280 could initiate a short-term rebound.
• Should bullish momentum build, a rise to 1.1375–1.1400 is feasible.
Neutral Scenario:
• Consolidation between 1.1150 and 1.1280 would keep the pair range-bound.
• Traders may consider employing sideways strategies until a breakout confirms the next direction.
Bias: Overall sentiment remains bearish unless EUR/USD breaks and holds above 1.1280.
📆 Key Events to Watch
May 14: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
May 15: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
May 16: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Conclusion
✅ Trader Tip
Focus on U.S. inflation data and ECB guidance this week, both of which are likely to induce volatility. Set alerts around 1.1150 and 1.1280, as these are key technical levels for breakout or continuation setups.