Technical Outlook
Support Levels:
• 1.1365
• 1.1275
• 1.1200
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1495
• 1.1572
• 1.1615
Indicators:
• RSI: Approaching overbought territory, indicating potential for consolidation.
• MACD: Positive, supporting bullish trend.
• Moving Averages: Price trading above 50-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting sustained upward momentum.
The EUR/USD pair has moved above key resistance levels, showing strong bullish momentum. However, technical indicators suggest possible short-term consolidation before further gains.
Fundamental Developments
• US Tariff Delay: President Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of tariffs on EU goods until July 9 has reduced immediate trade tensions, impacting the US dollar and supporting the euro.
• US Economic Data: US new home sales increased by 10.9% in April, exceeding expectations. Despite this positive data, the dollar remains under pressure due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties.
• European Economic Outlook: Investor optimism regarding a possible German economic recovery under Chancellor Merz's new government has strengthened the euro.
Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
• Sustained trading above 1.1365 could lead to a test of 1.1495. A break above this level may target 1.1572 and potentially 1.1615.
Bearish Scenario:
• Failure to hold above 1.1365 may result in a pullback towards 1.1275 or even 1.1200.
Neutral Scenario:
• The pair may consolidate between 1.1365 and 1.1495 before determining its next directional move.
Key Events to Watch This Week
• 28 May (Wednesday): Eurozone Consumer Confidence Data
• 29 May (Thursday): US Initial Jobless Claims, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator
• 30 May (Friday): Eurozone Inflation Rate (Preliminary), US Personal Income and Spending Data