🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD enters the first week of November under pressure after October’s choppy trading. The pair remains capped by uncertainty around Fed policy and mixed Eurozone data, while the U.S. dollar finds intermittent support from risk-off flows and delayed economic releases following the government shutdown.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Growth: Q3 GDP grew 0.2% QoQ, slightly above expectations, but momentum remains weak.
• Inflation: Euro area CPI eased to 2.1% in October, down from 2.2% in September; core inflation stable at 2.4%.
• ECB Outlook: ECB held rates at 2% in late October; no further cuts expected this year. Policy tone remains cautious amid slowing growth.
• Sentiment: PMIs show resilience in services but manufacturing contraction persists. Fiscal support and EU recovery funds cushion downside risks.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 29, signaling a pause before further easing. Odds of a December cut have dropped to ~50%.
• Economic Data: Inflation at 3.0% YoY; labor market softening with job growth slowing. Shutdown delays key data releases, adding uncertainty.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by cautious sentiment and relatively high U.S. yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1500 – Psychological and structural support
• 1.1470 – October low
• 1.1400 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1580 – Initial resistance
• 1.1620 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1650 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum moderating; histogram narrowing
• RSI: ~46 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold
• 50-day MA: Price below 1.1600; sustained close above 1.1620 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1620 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1650 ➡️ 1.1700
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1500
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, Eurozone data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1500
• Targets: 1.1470 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1620
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, Eurozone weakness