🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD starts the second week of November under mild pressure as markets digest recent Fed signals and Eurozone’s fragile recovery outlook. The pair trades near multi-week lows, with sentiment dominated by U.S. data uncertainty and cautious risk tone.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Growth: Q3 GDP confirmed at 0.2% QoQ; forward-looking indicators suggest stagnation into Q4.
• Inflation: October CPI at 2.1%, core stable at 2.4%; disinflation trend intact.
• ECB Outlook: ECB reiterates no further cuts in 2025; policy stance remains cautious amid weak demand and fiscal constraints.
• Sentiment: Services PMI resilient, manufacturing still contracting; energy prices stable, reducing near-term inflation risks.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent speeches lean toward data-dependence.
• Economic Data: Inflation steady at 3.0% YoY; labor market cooling with slower payroll growth. Shutdown-related delays keep markets guessing on key releases.
• Risk Tone: Dollar supported by safe-haven flows and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1470 – Key structural support
• 1.1440 – Extended downside target
• 1.1400 – Bearish continuation zone
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1550 – Initial resistance
• 1.1585 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1600 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum persists, but histogram shows early signs of stabilization
• RSI: ~44 – Neutral-to-bearish
• Stochastic: Gradual recovery from oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price remains below 1.1580; sustained close above 1.1600 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1585 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1600 ➡️ 1.1650
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1470
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on sentiment, Eurozone data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1470
• Targets: 1.1440 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1585
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, Eurozone weakness