🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD starts the last week of November under pressure near 1.1520 after failing to sustain gains from mid-month. The pair remains sensitive to Fed policy expectations and Eurozone’s weak growth outlook. Risk sentiment and upcoming U.S. data releases will be key drivers.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Growth: Q3 GDP confirmed at 0.2% QoQ; forward indicators point to stagnation into Q4.
• Inflation: October CPI at 2.1%, core stable at 2.4%; disinflation trend intact.
• ECB Outlook: ECB keeps rates at 2%; no further cuts expected this year. Lagarde’s recent comments highlight downside risks but no policy shift.
• Sentiment: German Ifo business climate index expected flat; PMIs show manufacturing contraction persists.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent Fed commentary leans cautious.
• Economic Data: This week brings U.S. retail sales, PPI, durable goods, GDP, and core PCE — all critical for Fed’s next move.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by risk-off flows and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1500 – Psychological and structural support
• 1.1470 – Key downside target
• 1.1400 – Extended bearish zone
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1555 – Initial resistance
• 1.1580 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1600 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum persists; histogram widening slightly
• RSI: ~44 – Neutral-to-bearish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price below 1.1580; sustained close above 1.1600 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1580 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1600 ➡️ 1.1650
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1500
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, Eurozone data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1500
• Targets: 1.1470 ➡️ 1.1400
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1580
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, Eurozone weakness