🔍 Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair enters mid-September with a bullish tilt, supported by weak U.S. macro data and a cautious ECB stance.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: Markets are pricing in a 25bps rate cut at the 17 September FOMC meeting with near certainty.
• Inflation Data: August CPI rose 2.9% YoY, while Core CPI held steady at 3.1%.
• Labor Market: Jobless claims surged to 263K, the highest since 2021.
• Empire State Manufacturing Index: Dropped sharply to -8.7 from 11.9, signaling contraction.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• ECB Policy: Rates held steady; President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach.
• German Wholesale Prices: Fell 0.6%, reflecting softening demand.
• Trade Balance: Posted a €5.3B surplus, supporting the euro.
• ECB Commentary: Officials remain cautious, citing persistent inflation risks.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1725 – short-term pivot
• 1.1670 – trendline support
• 1.1630 – key weekly base
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1830 – recent swing high
• 1.1880 – breakout target
• 1.1910 – medium-term resistance
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish crossover
• Stochastic: Near overbought
• RSI: 68 – approaching resistance
• Bollinger Bands: Expanding – volatility increasing

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1740 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1830 ➡️ 1.1880
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1670
• Catalysts: Weak U.S. data, dovish Fed, stable Eurozone fundamentals
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1670
• Targets: 1.1630 ➡️ 1.1580
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1740
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed surprise, Eurozone data miss, risk-off sentiment