🔍 Technical Outlook
Support Levels:
1.1400–1.1420: recent base & near 50‑day EMA
1.1300: previous swing low
1.1244 / 1.1170: deeper Fibonacci retracement zones
Resistance Levels:
1.1475–1.1505: recent swing high & upper trend zone
1.1570: measured extensions based on double‑top pattern
Indicators:
Price reached the upper trend resistance of 1.1473–1.1514
Bullish structure maintained on weekly charts, but daily shows consolidation above support
RSI supported by bounce off 50‑day EMA
Forming a double‑top pattern—failure above 1.1570 may confirm reversal
📰 Fundamental Drivers
Dollar Outlook:
Morgan Stanley predicts further downside in USD, potentially hitting DXY ~91 over 12 months
FX options market remains bearish USD, with continued demand for USD puts
Reuters poll indicates strategists remain inclined toward dollar weakness, forecasting euro potentially reaching $1.18 this year
Macro Risks:
US–China trade discussions, global growth, and inflation trends have an impact
📅 Key Events This Week
10 June: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release
12 June: US Producer Price Index (PPI)
13 June: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
📌 Trade Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
Expectation to hold above 1.1420, with next resistance test at 1.1475–1.1505
Breakout above 1.1505 opens path to 1.1570; long bias valid while above support
Bearish Scenario:
Failure at trend resistance (~1.1475) and break below 1.1400 may trigger double‑top pattern objective toward 1.1300–1.1244
Neutral/Range:
Consolidation between 1.1420–1.1475 as markets await CPI/PPI, especially amid mixed USD sentiment
✅ Strategy Summary
Buy Setup:
Entry: 1.1420–1.1430
Take Profit: 1.1505–1.1570
Stop Loss: Below 1.1400
Sell Setup:
Entry: 1.1475–1.1505
Take Profit: 1.1400–1.1300
Stop Loss: Above 1.1515