🔍 Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD pair enters the second week of September with a cautiously bullish tone, driven by weak US labor data and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: Markets now price in a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, up from 86% the previous week.
• Labor Market Weakness: August nonfarm payrolls showed only 22,000 new jobs, far below the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2%.
• Political Pressure: Ongoing political tension, including Donald Trump’s criticism of Fed officials, adds uncertainty to the dollar’s outlook.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Inflation & Employment: August CPI came in at 2.1% YoY, confirming a slowdown in inflation. Unemployment remains stable at 6.2%, and PPI growth is subdued at 0.2% YoY, indicating a cooling economy.

📊 Technical Analysis
• Support Levels:
o 1.1570 – key range support
o 1.1500 – secondary support
o 1.1380 – extended bearish target
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.1740 – short-term resistance
o 1.1830 – bullish breakout target
o 1.1845 – wedge pattern resistance
o 1.2095 – invalidation of bearish outlook
• Indicators:
o MACD: Flat near zero – trend indecision
o Stochastic: Mid-range – neutral sentiment
o RSI: Testing resistance – potential for reversal
o Bollinger Bands: Narrowing – consolidation phase

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1650 with confirmation above 1.1740
• Targets: 1.1830 ➡️ 1.1845
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1580
• Catalysts: Weak US data, dovish Fed tone, stable Eurozone fundamentals
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1580
• Targets: 1.1500 ➡️ 1.1380
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1675
• Catalysts: Strong US macro data, political instability in Europe, safe-haven dollar demand