🔍 Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD starts December near 1.1600, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and modest pressure on the U.S. dollar. The euro benefits from stable inflation data, while the dollar faces headwinds from soft labor indicators and dovish Fed signals.
🇪🇺 Eurozone:
• Inflation: CPI remains stable; energy prices trending lower, reducing headline inflation risk. ECB maintains a cautious stance, signaling no immediate easing.
• Growth: PMIs show mild contraction in manufacturing; services remain resilient. Fiscal debates and energy costs weigh on sentiment.
• ECB Outlook: No rate cuts expected in December; policymakers emphasize data dependency and patience.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Markets price in an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting, with three more cuts expected in 2026.
• Economic Data: ADP employment fell by 13.5K; retail sales rose only 0.2%. PPI slowed to 2.7% YoY, reinforcing easing expectations.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand softens amid dovish Fed bets and declining safe-haven flows.
📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.1570 – Near-term support
• 1.1466 – Weekly low zone
• 1.1400 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1616 – Initial resistance
• 1.1657 – Weekly pivot
• 1.1720 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Slight bullish bias; histogram narrowing after prior bearish phase
• RSI: ~52 – Neutral, leaning bullish
• Stochastic: Turning down from overbought, signaling potential corrective dips
• 50-day MA: Price hovering near 1.1600; sustained close above 1.1657 needed for bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.1657 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.1720 ➡️ 1.1770
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1570
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on sentiment, Eurozone data stability
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.1466
• Targets: 1.1400 ➡️ 1.1350
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1657
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed surprise, Eurozone economic weakness