🔍 Technical Outlook
Support Levels:
1.1138 (Daily S1)
1.1106 (Daily S2)
Resistance Levels:
1.1222 (Daily R1)
1.1253 (Daily R2)
Indicators:
SMA 20/50/100: Bearish signals
MACD: Bearish on daily; bullish on weekly timeframe
RSI: Bullish across daily, weekly, and monthly
Stochastic: Bullish
The pair is attempting to break above the bearish correctional channel, supported by positive RSI signals, suggesting potential for further upside if momentum sustains.
📰 Fundamental Developments
US Credit Rating Downgrade: Moody's downgrade has pressured the dollar, boosting EUR/USD.
US Economic Data: Upcoming PMI and jobless claims could influence dollar strength.
Eurozone Data: German IFO Business Climate and PMI figures are anticipated, with potential euro impact if results deviate from expectations.
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
Break above 1.1253 could target 1.1305.
Sustained euro strength may lead to 1.1370.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold above 1.1180 may retest 1.1138 and 1.1106.
Break below 1.1100 could extend losses toward 1.0950.
Neutral Scenario:
Consolidation between 1.1138 and 1.1253 as markets await clearer economic signals.
📅 Key Economic Events
21 May (Wednesday): US Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.9)
22 May (Thursday):
Eurozone Services PMI (Prior: 50.1)
Germany Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.8)
Germany Services PMI (Forecast: 49.6)
US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: ~229K)
23 May (Friday):
Germany Q1 GDP Final (Forecast: +0.2% q/q)
US New Home Sales (Forecast: +8.9%)