Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Improving Confidence
The euro continues to benefit from a more stable macroeconomic backdrop and improving market sentiment. Concerns that previously weighed on the currency have eased, allowing buyers to maintain control and support the ongoing recovery.
While growth expectations remain moderate, the market has become more comfortable holding EUR exposure. This has created a favorable environment for continued strength, although upside momentum may become less aggressive as prices move higher.
US Side – Dollar Losing Relative Advantage
The US dollar remains fundamentally supported, but the pace of USD demand has slowed compared to earlier phases of the year. Market participants appear increasingly selective when adding new long-dollar positions.
As long as broad sentiment remains stable, this environment favors EURUSD stability and gradual upside progress. However, any sudden increase in risk aversion could quickly revive USD demand and create temporary pressure on the pair.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD remains in a clear bullish structure across short- and medium-term timeframes. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, confirming the continuation of the recovery trend.
The successful defense of the 1.2000 area would represent an important technical achievement and could encourage buyers to target higher resistance levels during the coming weeks.
Key Support Zones
The 1.1950 – 1.2000 area serves as the first major support zone this week.
As long as price remains above this region, buyers should retain control of the current structure.
Below that, the 1.1850 – 1.1900 zone represents stronger medium-term support. A move into this area would likely indicate a broader consolidation phase rather than a complete trend reversal.
A sustained break below 1.1850 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance zone is located between 1.2100 and 1.2150.
This area represents the next significant obstacle for buyers and may attract profit-taking activity after the recent rally.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.2150 could open the path toward 1.2250 – 1.2300.
Momentum Conditions
Momentum remains positive but is beginning to slow after several weeks of gains.
This behavior suggests that while the trend remains healthy, the market may require periods of consolidation before developing another strong directional move.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Consolidation Above 1.2000 (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1950 and 1.2150 while digesting recent gains.
In this environment:
• Buyers continue defending key support levels.
• Resistance limits immediate upside expansion.
• Price develops a healthy consolidation pattern.
This would keep the broader bullish structure intact.

Scenario 2: Bullish Continuation (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.2150, bullish momentum could strengthen significantly.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.2250 – 1.2300, confirming continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

Scenario 3: Corrective Pullback (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1950 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.1900 – 1.1850.
Such a move would likely be viewed as a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure unless downside momentum accelerates substantially.