🔍 Technical Overview
Support Levels:
• 1.1550–1.1488 – recent consolidation base
• 1.1404 – next key support according to H4 Elliott-wave analysis
Resistance Levels:
• 1.1632 – peak from last week
• 1.1625 – technical upper resistance area
• 1.1700+ – potential target if the bullish trend resumes
Indicators:
• Trading above the 50‑day EMA, indicating a bullish trend
• RSI shows positive divergence, suggesting upside potential
• MACD/double‑top setup may limit gains, pending confirmation via price action
📰 Fundamental Drivers
ECB Commentary: Vice-President de Guindos emphasized that the euro’s recent appreciation has not adversely affected inflation, which is projected to return towards 2% by 2027. A pause in rate cuts is possible
Dollar Context: Continued hopes for trade de-escalation and cooling U.S. inflation have kept the dollar subdued, providing support for EUR/USD
📅 Key Events Ahead
• June 18 (Wed) – U.S. Federal Reserve decision (rate guidance critical)
• June 19 (Thu) – Bank of Japan rate announcement
• June 20 (Fri) – U.S. Retail Sales and UK CPI
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
• Maintain long positions as long as prices remain above the 1.1550–1.1488 support range
• A break above 1.1632–1.1625 resistance could target 1.1700 or higher
Bearish Scenario:
• Failure at resistance levels could lead to a retest of 1.1550
• A decisive drop below 1.1488 may shift momentum towards 1.1404 or even 1.1320–1.1300