Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Gradual Improvement
The euro continues to benefit from a more stable environment compared to earlier stages of the year. Investor sentiment has improved, reducing downside pressure and allowing the currency to maintain its recovery.
However, economic growth remains relatively modest, preventing EUR from developing a strong impulsive trend. As a result, the market remains constructive but selective, favoring gradual appreciation rather than aggressive advances.
US Dollar Side – Still Supported
The U.S. dollar continues to be supported by its yield advantage and generally resilient economic backdrop.
However, the strong bullish momentum seen previously has moderated, allowing EURUSD to stabilize and recover. Unless a new catalyst emerges in favor of the dollar, EURUSD should remain relatively well supported on dips.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD remains in a short- to medium-term recovery trend characterized by higher lows and improving market structure.
While buyers currently maintain control, the pair remains below several major long-term resistance areas, meaning additional confirmation is required before a stronger bullish trend can be declared.

Key Support Zones
1.1320 – 1.1360 is the primary support zone this week.
As long as price remains above this area, the recovery structure remains intact and buyers are likely to continue defending pullbacks.
Below that, 1.1240 – 1.1280 represents stronger medium-term support.
A sustained break below 1.1240 would suggest that the current recovery phase is losing momentum.

Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance zone is located between 1.1480 and 1.1520.
This area represents the next major challenge for buyers and is likely to attract increased selling pressure and profit-taking activity.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.1520 could open the path toward 1.1600 – 1.1650.

Momentum Conditions
Momentum remains mildly positive but shows signs of moderation.
This suggests the market remains supported, although further gains may require consolidation before another significant bullish move develops.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Consolidation Around 1.1400 (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1320 and 1.1520 while digesting recent gains.
In this environment:
• Buyers defend support zones.
• Resistance limits immediate upside expansion.
• Price develops a healthy consolidation structure.
This would preserve the medium-term recovery trend.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.1520, bullish momentum could strengthen considerably.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.1600 – 1.1650, confirming continuation of the recovery trend.

Scenario 3: Corrective Pullback (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1320 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.1280 – 1.1240.
Such a move would likely be viewed as a corrective phase unless selling pressure accelerates significantly.