Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Recovery Continues
The euro remains supported by improving sentiment compared to the weakness seen during the summer months. Investors appear increasingly willing to accumulate EUR on pullbacks, helping the pair maintain a constructive tone.
While Eurozone growth expectations remain moderate, the reduction in downside pressure has allowed the euro to gradually recover lost ground. This environment favors steady appreciation rather than aggressive trend acceleration.
U.S. Dollar Side – Strength Becoming Less Dominant
The U.S. dollar remains supported by relatively favorable yield conditions and resilient economic fundamentals.
However, after a prolonged period of strength, the dollar has begun showing signs of consolidation. This has reduced pressure on EURUSD and created room for buyers to challenge higher resistance levels.
As long as dollar momentum remains contained, EURUSD is likely to remain supported on dips.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD continues to build a constructive recovery pattern characterized by higher lows and improving momentum.
The successful defense of the 1.1500 area has strengthened the short-term structure and shifted focus toward a potential breakout above nearby resistance. While the broader long-term trend remains neutral, short- and medium-term conditions currently favor buyers.

Key Support Zones
1.1500 – 1.1550 represents the primary support zone this week.
Holding above this region would indicate that buyers remain committed to the recovery trend and continue defending recent gains.
Below that, 1.1420 – 1.1470 serves as stronger medium-term support.
A sustained break below 1.1420 would weaken the recovery structure and increase the risk of a broader correction.

Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance zone is located between 1.1650 and 1.1700.
This area represents the next major challenge for buyers and is likely to attract profit-taking activity after the recent advance.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.1700 could open the path toward 1.1800 – 1.1850.

Momentum Conditions
Momentum remains positive and continues to improve.
Recent price action suggests buyers are gradually gaining confidence, although the market may still require periods of consolidation before a stronger directional move develops.
The momentum profile currently favors upside continuation unless support levels fail.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Consolidation with Bullish Bias (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1500 and 1.1700 while digesting recent gains.
In this environment:
• Buyers continue defending support zones.
• Resistance slows immediate upside expansion.
• Price develops a healthy consolidation structure.
This would support continuation of the recovery trend.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.1700, bullish momentum could strengthen significantly.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.1800 – 1.1850, confirming that the recovery is evolving into a stronger medium-term uptrend.

Scenario 3: Corrective Pullback (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1500 could trigger renewed selling pressure.
In that case, EURUSD may retreat toward 1.1470 – 1.1420, suggesting that buyers are losing short-term control.
Such a move would delay, but not necessarily invalidate, the broader recovery structure.