Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Recovery Gaining Stability
The euro continues to benefit from improving sentiment following the weakness seen earlier in September. Market participants appear more comfortable accumulating EUR near support zones, helping the currency stabilize and recover.
While growth expectations across the Eurozone remain moderate, reduced downside pressure has allowed the euro to maintain a constructive tone. This environment supports gradual appreciation rather than aggressive upside acceleration.
US Dollar Side – Strength Moderating
The U.S. dollar remains fundamentally supported by its underlying economic resilience and interest-rate advantage.
However, recent price action suggests that bullish dollar momentum has faded compared to earlier months. This has created room for corrective EURUSD upside moves and has allowed buyers to challenge important resistance levels.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD has transitioned from a clear bearish phase into a recovery structure characterized by higher lows and improving momentum.
The pair remains above key support zones and continues to build a base above 1.1450. While the broader long-term trend remains undecided, short-term conditions currently favor buyers.
A break above nearby resistance would significantly strengthen the bullish technical outlook.

Key Support Zones
1.1450 – 1.1500 is the primary support zone this week.
Holding above this region would indicate that buyers remain committed to the recovery structure established during late September.
Below that, 1.1380 – 1.1420 serves as stronger medium-term support.
A sustained break below 1.1380 would weaken the recovery thesis and increase the risk of renewed selling pressure.

Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance zone is located between 1.1600 and 1.1650.
This area represents the next major obstacle for buyers and may attract profit-taking activity following the recent advance.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.1650 could open the path toward 1.1750 – 1.1800.

Momentum Conditions
Momentum indicators continue to improve and currently favor further upside potential.
However, the recovery remains relatively young, and buyers still need to confirm their strength through a successful breakout above resistance. Until then, consolidation near current levels remains possible.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Consolidation with Bullish Bias (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1450 and 1.1650 while digesting recent gains.
In this environment:
• Buyers continue defending support areas.
• Resistance slows immediate upside expansion.
• Price forms a healthy consolidation structure.
This would support continuation of the recovery trend.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.1650, bullish momentum could strengthen considerably.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.1750 – 1.1800, confirming a broader trend reversal and extending the recovery structure.

Scenario 3: Return of Selling Pressure (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1450 could trigger renewed downside pressure.
In that case, EURUSD may retreat toward 1.1420 – 1.1380, signaling that sellers have regained short-term control.
Such a move would delay, but not necessarily invalidate, the developing recovery.