Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Stabilization After Recent Weakness
The euro has shown signs of stabilization after the sharp decline seen earlier in September. Market participants are increasingly focused on whether the recent selloff has fully priced in economic concerns across the Eurozone.
While growth expectations remain relatively modest, the euro has begun attracting buyers near recent lows. This suggests downside momentum may be fading, although stronger evidence is required before a sustained bullish trend can develop.
US Dollar Side – Still Supported
The U.S. dollar remains supported by relatively attractive interest rate expectations and solid economic conditions.
However, after several weeks of strength, the dollar appears to be losing some momentum. This has created an environment where EURUSD may continue to recover provided buyers can defend key support levels.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD remains in a medium-term consolidation phase.
The strong decline during September pushed the pair toward major support, but recent sessions have produced signs of stabilization. Buyers are attempting to establish a higher low structure, though a confirmed trend reversal has yet to emerge.
As long as price remains above recent support levels, the short-term outlook remains constructive.

Key Support Zones
1.1450 – 1.1480 represents the most important support zone this week.
Holding above this region would indicate that the recent recovery remains intact and buyers continue to defend the market.
Below that, 1.1380 – 1.1420 serves as stronger medium-term support.
A sustained break below 1.1380 would likely shift momentum back in favor of sellers.

Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance area is located between 1.1550 and 1.1600.
This region acted as an important support area previously and may now function as resistance.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.1600 could open the door toward 1.1680 – 1.1750.

Momentum Conditions
Momentum has improved noticeably from the lows, but remains neutral overall.
The market appears to be transitioning from a bearish phase into a recovery phase. Confirmation through higher highs is still required before bullish momentum can be considered firmly established.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Recovery Within a Trading Range (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1450 and 1.1600 while continuing its recovery attempt.
In this environment:
• Buyers defend recent lows.
• Resistance limits aggressive upside expansion.
• Price action develops a broader consolidation structure.
This would be consistent with a market transitioning from decline to stabilization.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.1600, bullish momentum could strengthen significantly.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.1680 – 1.1750, confirming that the recent corrective recovery is evolving into a more meaningful uptrend.

Scenario 3: Bearish Continuation (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1450 could trigger renewed selling pressure.
In this case, EURUSD may revisit 1.1420 – 1.1380 and potentially test lower support levels.
This would indicate that sellers remain in control of the broader market structure.