Fundamental Outlook
Euro Side – Sentiment Improving
The euro continues to benefit from the stabilization that emerged during recent weeks. Investors appear increasingly comfortable holding EUR positions as downside pressure has eased significantly compared to earlier periods.
While economic growth expectations remain relatively modest, market sentiment toward the euro has improved enough to support gradual appreciation. This environment remains favorable for EURUSD as long as no major negative surprises emerge.
U.S. Dollar Side – Losing Momentum
The U.S. dollar remains fundamentally supported by relatively attractive yield conditions and a resilient economic backdrop.
However, the pace of dollar appreciation has slowed noticeably. This moderation has allowed EURUSD to recover and sustain gains above important support levels. Unless new USD-positive catalysts emerge, dollar strength may continue to be less dominant than earlier in the year.

Technical Outlook
Trend Structure
EURUSD remains within a constructive medium-term recovery trend.
The pair continues to establish higher lows and higher highs, indicating that buyers maintain control of the short- and medium-term structure. Recent price action suggests that former resistance levels are beginning to turn into support, which is typically a positive technical development.
The next major challenge is whether buyers can successfully break into a higher trading range above current resistance.

Key Support Zones
1.1550 – 1.1600 is the primary support zone this week.
Holding above this area would confirm that buyers remain committed to the recovery structure and continue defending recent gains.
Below that, 1.1470 – 1.1520 serves as stronger medium-term support.
A sustained break below 1.1470 would weaken the bullish outlook and increase the probability of a broader correction.

Key Resistance Zones
The primary resistance zone is located between 1.1700 and 1.1750.
This area represents the next major challenge for buyers and is likely to attract profit-taking activity.
A decisive break and sustained acceptance above 1.1750 could open the path toward 1.1850 – 1.1900.

Momentum Conditions
Momentum remains positive and continues to improve.
Recent advances have been supported by higher lows and constructive pullbacks, suggesting buyers remain active. However, because the market is approaching a significant resistance zone, periodic consolidation should still be expected.
Overall momentum conditions continue to favor the upside.

Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish Consolidation Beneath Resistance (High Probability)
The most likely scenario is EURUSD trading between 1.1550 and 1.1750 while consolidating recent gains.
In this environment:
• Buyers defend support zones.
• Resistance slows immediate upside expansion.
• Price develops a healthy consolidation structure.
This would preserve the medium-term recovery trend.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Moderate Probability)
If EURUSD establishes sustained acceptance above 1.1750, bullish momentum could strengthen considerably.
Under this scenario, the pair may advance toward 1.1850 – 1.1900, confirming continuation of the recovery trend and strengthening the medium-term bullish outlook.

Scenario 3: Corrective Pullback (Lower Probability)
Failure to hold above 1.1550 could trigger renewed selling pressure.
In that case, EURUSD may retreat toward 1.1520 – 1.1470, indicating that buyers are temporarily losing control of the recovery structure.
Such a move would likely be viewed as a correction rather than a trend reversal.