🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD enters the week with political uncertainty in the UK, softening U.S. labor conditions, and mixed monetary policy expectations, creating a choppy but sensitive trading environment.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom
• Political Turmoil: The resignation of UK Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney has intensified concerns about Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership stability, weighing on GBP sentiment.
• Economic Tone: UK growth remains fragile with declining consumer confidence. Investors worry political instability may hinder effective economic management.
• BoE Policy: The Bank of England held rates steady recently, though the MPC showed a dovish tilt by a single vote, suggesting the BoE may be closer to cutting rates than markets anticipated — a bearish influence for GBP.
• Market Sentiment: GBP is correlating broadly with EUR strength but remains vulnerable if bulls fail to clear key resistance levels.

🇺🇸 United States
• Fed Policy: U.S. macro weakness persists, with markets awaiting postponed Non-Farm Payrolls. Recent soft labor indicators support expectations of additional Fed easing in 2026 — weighing on USD.
• Risk Tone: USD faces pressure from both weak data and stronger JPY flows following Japan’s election-driven yen rally.
• Market Sentiment: A weak U.S. backdrop supports potential GBPUSD rebounds, but sentiment remains mixed due to political strain in the UK.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels
• 1.3526–1.3539 — Immediate support / last rebound zone
• 1.3369–1.3435 — Medium-term support (4H reversal zone)
• 1.3335 — Weekly support cluster from broad technical levels
Resistance Levels
• 1.3595–1.3620 — Key resistance for trend continuation attempts
• 1.3795 — 127.2% Fibonacci extension (major hurdle)
• 1.3935 — Weekly resistance (Wedge pattern test zone)
Indicators
• Wave Structure: Market bias turning bearish after failure to break previous highs; two completed bearish waves confirm trend shift.
• RSI: Testing upper range trend lines, signaling potential rejection.
• Moving Averages: Moving averages on weekly charts highlight bullish pressure but nearing exhaustion.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup
• Entry: Above 1.3620 with confirmed break and structure validation
• Targets:
   • 1.3755 (Fibonacci 161.8% projection)
   • 1.3795 (major 4H resistance)
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3526
• Catalysts:
   • Weaker U.S. data (NFP + CPI influence)
   • Risk on flows
   • Resolution of UK political tensions
• Rationale: Bulls continue to attempt higher highs, but need a clean break above 1.3620 to invalidate bearish wave sequence.

❌ Bearish Setup
• Entry: Below 1.3530 (support breakdown confirmation)
• Targets:
   • 1.3470 (100% Fibonacci ref.)
   • 1.3369–1.3435 (4H reversion zone)
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3620
• Catalysts:
   • Renewed UK political instability
   • Strong U.S. macro surprises (payrolls rebound)
   • Hawkish Fed commentary
• Rationale: Failure of bulls to clear the central resistance zone confirms bearish continuation driven by wave structure and fading GBP momentum.