🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD begins the second week of November under pressure as the pound struggles with weak domestic data and lingering uncertainty around Bank of England (BoE) policy. The U.S. dollar remains supported by cautious global sentiment and relatively high yields.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• Growth: Q3 GDP flat at 0.0% QoQ; recession risks persist as consumer spending weakens.
• Inflation: October CPI eased to 3.4% YoY from 3.6%; core inflation remains sticky at 3.8%.
• BoE Outlook: BoE held rates at 4.50% in early November, signaling a prolonged pause. Market pricing suggests no cuts until mid-2026.
• Sentiment: PMIs point to contraction in manufacturing and services; labor market softening adds pressure on household incomes.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed’s October rate cut (25 bps) to 3.75%-4.00% continues to shape expectations; December cut odds near 50%, but recent Fed commentary leans cautious.
• Economic Data: Inflation steady at 3.0% YoY; payroll growth slowing. Shutdown-related delays keep markets guessing on key releases.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by risk-off flows and relatively high U.S. yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.2250 – Psychological and structural support
• 1.2220 – Weekly low zone
• 1.2150 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.2320 – Initial resistance
• 1.2355 – Weekly pivot
• 1.2380 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum intact but histogram narrowing
• RSI: ~45 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price below 1.2350; sustained close above 1.2380 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.2355 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.2380 ➡️ 1.2420
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.2220
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, UK data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.2220
• Targets: 1.2150 ➡️ 1.2100
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.2355
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, UK economic weakness