📌 Fundamental Overview
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
• UK macro momentum is mixed.
Recent PMI and retail numbers have shown pockets of strength, while labour data remains weak and inflation dynamics continue to cool. This creates a tug of war in GBP sentiment.
• Mortgage and lending data:
BoE data for November is expected to show mortgage approvals easing slightly from 65K to 64.5K, reflecting softer household demand.
• Shop price inflation:
Due on Tuesday — expected to tick higher for December, which may temporarily support Sterling ahead of upcoming BoE decisions.
🇺🇸 United States
• Key U.S. labour data in focus:
U.S. job market indicators this week will heavily influence USD direction, particularly after recent volatility sparked by geopolitical events and Fed pressure.
• Fed policy expectations:
Markets anticipate the Fed will keep rates unchanged, but investors are watching for the announcement of Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell in May — a major risk event for the USD.

📊 Technical Analysis
GBPUSD is trading inside a broad descending structure, but the pair is attempting a short term bullish correction from the 1.3400 zone.
Support Levels
• 1.3400 – 1.3410 (Major near term support)
• 1.3390 (Daily S2 & structural support)
• 1.3285 (Key breakdown confirmation level)
Resistance Levels
• 1.3450 – 1.3468 (First strong resistance cluster)
• 1.3485 (Weekly pivot resistance & expected test level)
• 1.3535 (Upside extension from DailyForex signal)
• 1.3675 (Breakout confirmation level — would cancel the downside scenario)
Indicators
• Short term MAs: Bearish tilt (20 & 50 SMA signaling sell).
• Longer term MAs: Mild bullish bias indicating recovery potential above 1.3400.
• RSI: Showing buying interest (bullish on multiple timeframes).
• MACD: Generally bearish on the daily chart (momentum fading).

📈 Trading Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario – Correction Continuation
• Entry: Above 1.3468 or on a clean retest of 1.3410
• Targets:
o 1.3485 (primary)
o 1.3535 (extension)
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3390
• Justification:
o Improving UK retail & PMI data
o USD weakness due to Fed related uncertainty
🔴 Bearish Scenario – Trend Resumption
• Entry: Failure at 1.3468 or breakdown below 1.3400
• Targets:
o 1.3390
o 1.3285
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3485
• Justification:
o BoE macro softness, weak labour conditions
o Potential USD strengthening if U.S. labour data surprises