🔍 1. Fundamental Analysis
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Fundamentals
1. UK Data Remains Mixed
• Short term indicators show selling pressure on lower timeframes, but longer term moving averages still signal a possible buy bias.
• The market is watching:
o Mortgage & lending data for November, expected to show a dip in approvals to 64.5k (from 65k).
o Shop Price Inflation, expected to rise slightly—a factor that may temporarily support GBP.
2. UK Retail & PMI Data Recently Surprised to the Upside
Near the end of the previous week, UK retail sales and PMI reports beat forecasts, helping GBP recover from the lows.
3. BOE Outlook Remains Cautious
• Market participants still expect future BOE rate cuts, which limits upward momentum.
• But these expectations are not immediate, allowing GBP to remain somewhat supported in the short term.

🇺🇸 United States Fundamentals
1. Market Sensitivity to USD Macro Events
• U.S. labor and macro data remain pivotal; traders expect meaningful volatility from upcoming releases.
2. Powell Leadership Question & Fed Uncertainty
• Markets are watching the expected announcement of Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell in May, a major volatility driver for USD.
3. Venezuela Crisis Volatility Short lived
• USD saw a brief safe haven bounce after U.S. military actions in Venezuela, but that move faded quickly.

📊 2. Technical Analysis
GBPUSD remains in a broad descending structure, though price is attempting a short term bounce above the 1.3400 level.
Key Support Levels
• 1.3410–1.3400 — Major local support
• 1.3390 — S2 daily support
• 1.3331–1.3285 — Breakdown zone; a close below here confirms deeper bearish trend
Key Resistance Levels
• 1.3450–1.3468 — First critical resistance cluster
• 1.3485 — Weekly pivot resistance; expected to be tested
• 1.3535 — Upper extension (previous week’s high)
Momentum & Indicators
• Short term MAs: Bearish signals
• Long term MAs: Still showing bullish structure
• RSI: Shows buyer interest across multiple timeframes
• MACD: Bearish in short term; aligns with broader corrective setup

📈 3. Trading Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario (Short Term Corrective Upside)
• Entry: Above 1.3468
• Targets:
o 1.3485
o 1.3535
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3390
• Catalysts:
o Recent UK retail & PMI strength
o USD pressure from Fed uncertainty and leadership questions

🔴 Bearish Scenario (Primary Structural Trend)
• Entry: Below 1.3400
• Targets:
o 1.3390
o 1.3331 → 1.3285
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3468
• Catalysts:
o Weak UK economic fundamentals
o Stronger U.S. data flow or improvements in risk sentiment

🧠 4. Market Sentiment Overview
• GBPUSD opens the week undecided, with mixed fundamental impulses on both sides.
• GBP gains are fragile—supported only by short-term data surprises.
• USD remains reactive to U.S. political and economic headlines, especially potential changes in Fed leadership.
• Technical structure shows range bound movement, with 1.3485 acting as a ceiling unless a major USD selloff occurs.