🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD begins the third week of November near 1.3170, struggling to gain traction amid weak UK fundamentals and cautious global sentiment. The dollar remains supported by relatively high yields and safe-haven flows, while sterling faces pressure from stagnant growth and sticky inflation.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• Growth: Q3 GDP flat at 0.0% QoQ; recession risks persist as consumer spending weakens.
• Inflation: October CPI eased to 3.4% YoY from 3.6%; core inflation remains sticky at 3.8%.
• BoE Outlook: BoE held rates at 4.50% in early November, signaling a prolonged pause. Market pricing suggests no cuts until mid-2026.
• Sentiment: PMIs point to contraction in manufacturing and services; labor market softening adds pressure on household incomes.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent speeches lean toward data-dependence.
• Economic Data: Inflation steady at 3.0% YoY; labor market cooling with slower payroll growth. Shutdown-related delays keep markets guessing on key releases.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by safe-haven flows and relatively high U.S. yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.3150 – Psychological and structural support
• 1.3130 – Weekly low zone
• 1.3100 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.3200 – Initial resistance
• 1.3235 – Weekly pivot
• 1.3250 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum intact but histogram narrowing
• RSI: ~47 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price remains below 1.3230; sustained close above 1.3250 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.3235 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.3250 ➡️ 1.3300
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3130
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on sentiment, UK data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.3130
• Targets: 1.3100 ➡️ 1.3050
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3235
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, UK economic weakness