🔍 Technical Overview
Support Levels:
• 1.3518 – Weekly low amid safe-haven flows
• 1.3450 – Short-term trendline support
• 1.3400 – Key psychological and 50-day EMA support
Resistance Levels:
• 1.3617 – Last week’s peak and recent high
• 1.3660 – Next technical resistance
• 1.3700 – Long-term target if bullish continuation holds
Indicators:
• The price remains above 50/200 EMA, indicating a sustained upward bias
• RSI near 60—not yet overbought, suggesting further potential for growth
📰 Fundamental Highlights
Geopolitical and Risk Sentiment: Tensions in the Middle East have intermittently pressured GBP lower; however, macroeconomic strength continues to support the pound
U.S.–U.K. Trade Developments: A new trade agreement removing aerospace tariffs has reduced uncertainty, bolstering GBP
BoE Outlook: The central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%, with two additional cuts anticipated later in the year
📅 Key Events This Week
• June 18 (Wed) – U.K. CPI
• June 19 (Thu) – BoE Policy Decision
• June 20 (Fri) – U.S. Retail Sales & Michigan Consumer Confidence
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Case
As long as GBP/USD remains above 1.3518, an upside bias is likely to persist. A breakout above 1.3617 could potentially lead to gains toward 1.3660–1.3700.
Bearish Case
A failure at 1.3617 or increased risk-off sentiment could push the price down towards 1.3450. A break below the range of 1.3450–1.3518 may test the 1.3400 support level, with potential for further decline.