🔍 Fundamental Overview
The GBP/USD pair enters the week under pressure following diverging monetary policy signals from the Fed and BoE. While the Fed initiated its easing cycle with a 25bps rate cut, the BoE held rates steady, citing persistent inflation concerns.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: Fed cut rates to 4.0–4.25% and signalled two more cuts this year.
• Labor Market: Jobless claims remain elevated; wage growth is slowing.
• Fed Commentary: New governor Stephen Miran voted for a 50bps cut, suggesting internal dovish momentum.
• Dollar Outlook: Supported by safe-haven demand and high Treasury yields.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• BoE Policy: Rates unchanged; inflation still “too high” per officials.
• Economic Data: Retail sales beat expectations, but construction and services PMI remain weak.
• Outlook: Recession risks rising amid high taxes and budget deficits.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.3355 – short-term support
• 1.3335 – wedge breakdown target
• 1.3140 – medium-term bearish target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.3565 – corrective rebound ceiling
• 1.3600 – psychological resistance
• 1.3732 – recent swing high
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum
• Stochastic: Oversold – potential for short-term rebound
• RSI: Pointing downward
• EMA50: Price trading below – bearish pressure intensifies

📈 Trading Scenarios
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.3470
• Targets: 1.3335 ➡️ 1.3140
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3600
• Catalysts: Policy divergence, weak UK data, strong USD demand
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.3565
• Targets: 1.3600 ➡️ 1.3732
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3335
• Catalysts: Technical rebound, oversold conditions, dovish Fed tone