🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBPUSD enters the first week of March under severe risk off pressure, with both geopolitical shockwaves and macroeconomic data contributing to the downturn.
🇺🇸 United States Drivers
1. Middle East Conflict Fuels USD Safe Haven Strength
• A major escalation occurred after U.S. and Israeli forces bombed Iran, killing over 200 people, including Iran’s Supreme Leader.
• Iran retaliated with missile attacks across the region.
Impact:
o Global markets shift into risk off mode.
o USD strengthens sharply as a safe haven.
o GBPUSD drops heavily.
2. U.S. Inflation Pressures Intensify
• U.S. PPI rose from 0.4% → 0.5%, annual PPI from 3.3% → 3.6%, indicating sticky inflation.
Impact:
• Fed may delay rate cuts beyond June.
• Higher yields boost USD demand.
3. Key U.S. Data This Week
• NFP (Friday): Expected +60k jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• ISM Manufacturing/Services, ADP, and PMI data also in focus.
Net Result:
USD remains fundamentally supported, limiting GBPUSD upside.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom Drivers
1. GBP Under Pressure From Global Risk-Off
The pound weakens not due to UK data, but because:
• Global capital flows flee risk assets,
• Energy price spikes impact UK imports more than the U.S.
(parallel macro themes discussed)
2. Domestic Data Ahead
• UK PMI and House Price Index due this week.
3. Medium Term Outlook Mixed
• BOE remains on hold at 3.75%, awaiting clearer inflation direction.
(via broader macro summaries)
Net Result:
Sterling remains fragile, heavily driven by external shocks rather than domestic fundamentals.

📊 Technical Analysis
The daily chart continues to show downward pressure, with the pair trading below major moving averages.
Market Structure
• GBPUSD remains below the 50 day EMA, signaling sustained bearish momentum.
• Price action is creating lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a developing downtrend.
Support Levels
• 1.3380 — First major weekly support (expected correction test).
• 1.3315 — Secondary structural support.
• 1.3145 — Key invalidation level; break implies deeper collapse.
Resistance Levels
• 1.3585 / 1.3665 — First resistance cluster; breakout required to reverse bearish pressure.
• 1.3783 — Prior broken support (DailyForex reference).
• 1.4165 — Extended bullish channel target if rebound is strong.
Indicators
• RSI: Approaching support line → possible short-term stabilization.
• MACD: Bearish, confirming downtrend continuation. (DailyForex chart commentary)
• Trend channel: Still within medium term bullish channel despite short-term drop.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (Counter Trend Rebound)
• Entry: Break above 1.3585–1.3665
• Targets:
o 1.3780
o 1.4000
o 1.4165 (extended)
• Stop: Below 1.3380
• Catalysts:
o De escalation in Middle East conflict
o Softer U.S. data (ISM, NFP)
• Rationale:
A break of resistance levels signals buyers returning after risk off shock.

❌ Bearish Scenario (Continuation)
• Entry: Break below 1.3380
• Targets:
o 1.3315
o 1.3145
o Below 1.2805 (if 1.3145 fails)
• Stop: Above 1.3585
• Catalysts:
o Further escalation of Iran conflict
o Strong U.S. data and rising yields
• Rationale:
The pair already breached key levels, and global risk-off strongly favors USD.