🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD started November under pressure, reflecting a dovish Bank of England stance and lingering uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown. While the Fed’s October rate cut capped dollar strength, safe-haven flows and cautious sentiment keep the greenback supported.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• BoE Policy: Bank of England held rates at 4% in its November meeting but signaled readiness for a December cut. MPC vote split (5-4) shows growing support for easing amid weak growth and cooling inflation.
• Economic Data: UK GDP growth for Q3 was 0.1% QoQ, confirming sluggish momentum. Inflation slowed to 3.6%, reinforcing dovish expectations.
• Political Climate: Fiscal uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget (Nov 26) adds volatility; speculation about tax changes persists.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 29, signaling a pause before further easing. Odds of a December cut now ~50%.
• Macro Signals: Inflation at 3.0% YoY; labor market softening with job growth slowing. Shutdown delays key data releases, creating uncertainty.
• Risk Sentiment: Dollar demand supported by cautious tone and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.3050 – Initial support
• 1.3000 – Psychological level
• 1.2940 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.3140 – First resistance
• 1.3180 – Weekly pivot
• 1.3260 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum intact; histogram widening
• RSI: ~40 – Weak upside strength
• Stochastic: Near oversold, potential for corrective bounce
• 50-day MA: Price below 1.3150; sustained close above 1.3180 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.3180 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.3260 ➡️ 1.3340
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3050
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on flows, UK fiscal clarity
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.3050
• Targets: 1.3000 ➡️ 1.2940
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3180
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed signals, UK economic weakness