Fundamental Overview
The GBPUSD pair enters the first week of September under mixed pressure from both UK and US macroeconomic dynamics.
United Kingdom:
• BoE Policy Outlook: The Bank of England is expected to ease policy more aggressively than the Federal Reserve in the coming months, which continues to weigh on the pound.
• Inflation & Labor Market: While inflation has shown signs of cooling, the UK labor market remains resilient. This may offer temporary support to GBP, but the broader monetary policy divergence favors USD strength.
United States:
• Fed Rate Expectations: The dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand and ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Traders are watching the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Treasury yield movements closely.
• Macro Data: Strong US data continues to support the dollar, especially in the face of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Technical Analysis
Key Support Levels
• 1.3355 – near-term support with SMA50 interaction
• 1.3140 – base target for the third downward wave
• 1.3000 – psychological level
• 1.2695 – extended wave target
Key Resistance Levels
• 1.3590 – breakout level for bullish continuation
• 1.3660 → 1.3800 → 1.4000 – bullish impulse targets
• 1.4160 – extended wave top
Indicator Insights
• Price broke below the 200 SMA and 100 SMA, signaling bearish momentum.
• RSI remains below 50, supporting downside bias.
• On the daily chart, GBPUSD is consolidating around 1.3540, with potential for a move toward 1.3486 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) before testing 1.3505 (8-period EMA).
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Setup (Alternative Scenario)
• Entry: Above 1.3590
• Targets: 1.3660 → 1.3800 → 1.4000 → 1.4160
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3470
• Catalysts: Weak US data, BoE holding rates, risk-on sentiment
Bearish Setup (Base Scenario)
• Entry: Below 1.3355
• Targets: 1.3140 → 1.3000 → 1.2695
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3550
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed, BoE dovish tone, geopolitical risks