🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o 1.3413–1.3421: Key short-term support zone
o 1.3365: Last week’s low and potential breakdown point
o 1.3233: Longer-term support if bearish momentum continues
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.3460–1.3465: EMA confluence (9-day and 50-day)
o 1.3500: Psychological resistance
o 1.3575: Major resistance; breakout here could accelerate gains
• Indicators:
o RSI remains below 50, suggesting bearish momentum
o Price is still trading below key EMAs, indicating technical weakness

🧭 Fundamental Highlights
• UK Labor Market: Unemployment remains at 4%, and average earnings rose 6.1% YoY. The Bank of England is watching this data closely before considering rate cuts.
• U.S. Strength: Strong U.S. inflation and job data continued to support the dollar. Fed officials remain cautious, holding off on early rate cuts.
• Tariff Concerns: Renewed trade tension and potential tariffs from the U.S. added safe-haven flows into USD, weighing on GBP.

📅 Key Events This Week (Bullet Format)
• Monday, July 22: Fed Chair Powell’s comments on inflation
• Wednesday, July 24: UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs
• Thursday, July 25: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
• Friday, July 26: U.S. Durable Goods Orders & Q2 GDP Estimate

📈 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario
• A rebound above 1.3420 may trigger a test of 1.3465 and then 1.3500.
• A sustained move above 1.3575 could trigger a bullish breakout.
Bearish Scenario
• A break below 1.3410 opens the door toward 1.3365, followed by 1.3233.
• Continued USD strength and soft UK data would reinforce downside pressure.