🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD enters the week in a fragile, cautious environment, with both USD and GBP facing conflicting macro signals.
🇺🇸 United States (USD Side)
• USD weakened after soft inflation:
U.S. CPI slowed to 2.4% y/y, below expectations (2.5%). This pressured the dollar, allowing GBP/USD to rebound on Friday.
• Strong NFP earlier in the week temporarily boosted USD:
Payrolls beat expectations sharply, causing markets to delay expectations for the first Fed cut from June to July. However, the USD rebound faded quickly.
• Market pricing now favors earlier rate cuts:
Traders now see over 80% probability of a June cut, adding to USD softness.
Net USD Effect:
The USD enters the week mixed — strong labor data supports it, but soft inflation undermines momentum.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom (GBP Side)
• UK ended 2025 with weak GDP readings:
Growth slowdown, especially in construction and business investment, added pressure to sterling.
• BoE meeting was “dovish,” weakening the pound:
The market saw the Bank of England as softer than expected, leaving GBP under pressure against most currencies except USD.
• Limited UK side optimism:
The pound only found support against the USD due to U.S. CPI softness, not domestic strength.
Net GBP Effect:
Sterling remains fundamentally weak, with rebounds driven mostly by USD weakness rather than UK economic strength.

📊 Technical Analysis
GBP/USD price action remains choppy and reaction driven, aligned with macro uncertainty.
Key Observations
• Price rebounded strongly from ~1.35920, following USD weakness on Friday.
• The pair remains below January’s highs near 1.38500, showing failure to re enter bullish structure.
• Volatility has increased significantly over the past two weeks.
Support Levels
• 1.3595–1.3620 — Crucial support zone; GBPUSD rebounded from here.
• 1.3526–1.3539 — Deeper support; break opens downward continuation.
• 1.3369–1.3435 — Broader next level support zone (H4 trend support).
Resistance Levels
• 1.3660 — Immediate short term resistance.
• 1.3730–1.3755 — Key structure reversal zone + 161.8% Fibonacci level.
• 1.3795 — Major weekly resistance; break suggests a shift to bullish continuation.
Indicator Structure
• Wave structure remains bearish: the last bearish wave broke previous lows, and the bullish wave failed to break highs.
• MACD shows decelerating bearish momentum, suggesting consolidation rather than trend reversal.
• Buyers held price above the EMA 85, indicating short term buying pressure.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: Break & close above 1.3660
• Targets:
o 1.3735
o 1.3755
o Extension: 1.3795
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3595
• Catalysts:
o Continued USD weakness following soft CPI
o Stronger than expected UK inflation or growth data
• Rationale:
A push above 1.3660 signals renewed bullish pressure and a possible attack on the 1.3730–1.3795 zone.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: Break below 1.3595
• Targets:
o 1.3539
o 1.3435
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3660
• Catalysts:
o Strong U.S. macro data (durable goods, consumer data, USD repricing)
o Weak UK economic reports
• Rationale:
Breaking below 1.3595 resumes the existing bearish wave structure, confirming lower high/lower low continuation.