🔍 Fundamental Overview
The British pound begins the second week of September with renewed strength, supported by weak US labor data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Labor Market Weakness: August NFP data showed only 22,000 new jobs, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the highest since the pandemic.
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The weak data has increased the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
• Inflation Outlook: Core CPI is expected to rise to 3.3%, further away from the Fed’s 2% target, adding complexity to the Fed’s decision.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• BoE Policy: The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady amid persistent inflation, which supports GBP relative to USD.
• Technical Recovery: GBPUSD rebounded from a low of 1.3143 in August to 1.3500, breaking above key resistance at 1.3428.

📊 Technical Analysis
• Support Levels:
o 1.3430 – short-term support
o 1.3280–1.3315 – key weekly support zone
o 1.3092–1.3144 – extended support
o 1.2948 – 100% extension target
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.3600 – psychological target
o 1.3648–1.3650 – key breakout zone
o 1.3749 – 2022 high
o 1.4003 – long-term bullish target
• Indicators:
o Price remains above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs
o Formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern
o RSI and MACD show bullish momentum

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.3500 with confirmation above 1.3650
• Targets: 1.3749 ➡️ 1.4003
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3430
• Catalysts: Fed rate cut, BoE holding rates, technical breakout
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.3430
• Targets: 1.3280 ➡️ 1.3140 ➡️ 1.2948
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3500
• Catalysts: Strong US inflation data, risk-off sentiment, failed breakout